Sunday, September 10, 2006

Qualitative v Quantitative

Well, our prep classes are over, and the countdown to the first official day of class has begun.

For me, the prep classes did not go well, quantitatively. They went pretty bad, to be honest, results wise. But, from a qualitative perspective, what I actually learned in relation to where I was when I started three weeks ago, and how what I learned has put the upcoming first quarter and the rest of my time at IR/PS into a clearer perspective, it was quite successful for me.

Mainly, I learned what I didn't know. And, that is quite a lot. While I was following in the footsteps of Paul Theroux, other folks in my generation have been using equations, graphs, and Excel to run the world! (Though I read what Theroux thought about those people in Dark Star over Africa.) It was a bit scary, to think about the effect an upside down profit maximizing parabola created by some numbers guy in some office in some tall building somewhere has on the lives of families everywhere.

I realized that economics and high level math should be taught at an earlier age in the US than it is now. Even if I had first studied this as an undergraduate, it would have been too late, really. And, when some kid asks, why are we learning this, teachers should draw a parabola and say (or perhaps on the first day of class) "See this, someone figured this out from an equation, and decided that your father couldn't have health care, decided your mother couldn't have her job, and decided you should be eating a frozen meal ready to eat instead of something fresh, and so lets try to understand the reasoning behind it, and, if we think these results are not what is best for everyone, let us see if we can't come up with different results?"

Like Prof. Craig McIntosh said time and time again (qualitative remarks being much more easily remembered by me than quantitative equations) during prep, if you are going to argue with economists, you have to speak their language. It makes sense, if you are planning on speaking truth to power, you are going to have to do it in a language they (are willing to) understand. And, it isn't that hard to see alternative explanations; look at equations and formulations and ideas behind economics, and it is quite easy to see where the models break down – or where they should break down, or shouldn't be followed. Economics is only a model. It is a good way to break down complex problems into simple models, but people aren't planets, quietly spinning through space following an elegant curve that can figured out mathematically. And there are more variables in life than what is included in supply and demand curves.

(I am sure people have made equations trying to add in all sorts of variables, and I am not looking forward to figuring out those equations.)

But models, while they are not perfect, can help a lot. Prof. McIntosh lectured on -- the last day of prep, after the test, thankfully -- how the simple models we had learned in the past week could be used to help understand why poor people view investments as a larger risk than wealthy people do. I assume this is directly related to his research and practice in microfinancing. And it was nice to see that these models were not only being used for private companies, but to help the public good in positive ways.

However, when I told my mom the results of my tests, and the tests were testing my math skills, a skill I have never been strong at, she wondered why I didn't go to another school I was accepted to, the one with a tree for a mascot that is just down the freeway from my parents house where I grew up, where I could have quietly studied educational policy and systems in Japan and around the world

Of course, I thought the same when I saw my results. But, I chose to come to IR/PS because I knew I was lacking these quantitative skills that have come to exert such power over modern society. In order to change things for the better, especially on an individual level, it is important to balance qualitative and quantitative ways of thinking. I just have to dig in and work on figuring out how the quantitative side works, and how to combine the two.

I have always been a bit of a late bloomer. I did poorly in my typing class in my freshman year in high school, and now I type fairly fast; I did not do so well in my kanji studies as an undergraduate, but I am now reasonably proficient.

And, in the end, the tortoise beat the hare. A poor quantitative showing in prep hasn't worried me much. Its still just numbers and I still would submit that successfully learning how to teach, a qualitative skill no matter how many quantitative tests the stats people want to put in front of students, is more difficult than this. So, I am not more worried, just more prepared, which seems to be a good definition of a "prep class."

Still, I hope that order for "Calculus for Dummies" hasn't got lost in the mail . . . .

Jason Packman

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